Fact Check: BMKG Never Announced a 2026 Megathrust Earthquake Across Indonesia

February 28, 2026 | 02:40 pm

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - A number of posts circulated on Instagram [archive], TikTok, and Facebook on Wednesday, February 25, claiming that the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) had announced a megathrust earthquake alert across Indonesian islands in 2026.

The post shared on Wednesday included the BMKG logo, two men in white uniforms, and a map of earthquake red zones. The text read, "BMKG urges alertness for megathrust earthquakes throughout Indonesia."

Is it true that BMKG issued a warning of a major earthquake in 2026?

FACT CHECK

Tempo verified the information by analyzing the visuals and interviewing the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG). The results showed that although several regions in Indonesia have the potential for megathrust earthquakes, BMKG never issued a warning of a major earthquake in 2026. Currently, no technology, including those based on AI, can accurately predict the timing of earthquakes.

A megathrust is an area where the Earth's tectonic plates converge, which can potentially cause strong earthquakes and tsunamis. According to the 2017 Earthquake Source and Hazard Map from the National Earthquake Study Center (PuSGeN), Indonesia is surrounded by thirteen megathrust zones. These areas are located in the Sunda Strait, stretching partly south of Java and Bali, as well as in the Mentawai zone to Siberut in western Sumatra.

The term "megathrust" describes earthquakes that originate in the zone where tectonic plates meet. Etymologically, "mega" means large, and "thrust" refers to a fault. This zone is located at the boundary between continental and oceanic crust. Although AI systems now aid in plate data collection, this technology still cannot predict when a disaster will strike.

Not the BMKG Logo

Tempo analyzed a poster using the BMKG logo to disseminate an earthquake warning. After comparing the logo on the poster with the agency's official logo, it became clear that the logo used in the circulating content was not BMKG’s official logo.

The official BMKG logo is available on the agency's website. The original logo is a circle containing a blue sky with white clouds and green stripes.

The shapes and colors in the logo have specific philosophical meanings. Blue represents climatology, the study of climate, while the green broken line represents geophysics. The gray line indicates Indonesia's location on the equator.

No Megathrust Earthquake Warnings Across Indonesia

The Acting Director of Earthquakes and Tsunami at BMKG, Dr. Rahmat Triyono, stated that no megathrust earthquake warning has been issued for any of the islands in 2026. Similarly, the poster circulating on social media is not a BMKG product.

“Science and technology, including the BMKG, cannot precisely predict when, where, or how big an earthquake will be,” Rahmat told Tempo on Thursday, February 26, 2026.

According to Rahmat, the BMKG monitors seismic activity, studies potential earthquake sources, and provides official, data-driven information. He explained that the potential disasters identified by the BMKG are not intended to cause alarm, but rather to increase public preparedness.

He appealed to the public to access information only through official BMKG channels: Instagram, X, the website, and the Telegram channel (https://t.me/InaTEWS_BMKG).

CONCLUSION

Tempo's investigation found that the claim that the BMKG issued a warning about a megathrust earthquake hitting all Indonesian islands in 2026 is false.

TEMPO FACT-CHECK TEAM

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