February 26, 2026 | 05:03 pm
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Extreme weather potential remains present across Indonesia next week. According to the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) heavy rain with thunderstorms and strong winds will still loom over the country in early March 2026, including in Greater Jakarta.
Among the contributing factors is the activity of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the Indian Ocean (phase 3), which contributes greatly to raincloud formation in the country. Additionally, the Kelvin Wave and Equatorial Rossby Wave are predicted to be active, particularly over Java.
These conditions are likely to cause increased convective activity and rainfall potential, albeit another contributing factor, the Asian monsoon winds, is no longer detected.
Strengthened Asian monsoon was behind the recent overnight downpours in Greater Jakarta.
Climatology researcher at the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), Erma Yulihastin, predicts that rainy days will still occur before the dry season arrives in Jakarta in the later part of April. In Bogor, the dry season will come even later, at the end of May.
"Rainfall potential remains high until April, especially in Bogor," she said in a statement, which Tempo gained permission to quote.
She also shared the opinion that the active Rossby Wave since February 6 will continue to contribute to the potential for future rainfall. She also mentioned that the Rossby Wave is now centered along the Java and East Nusa Tenggara regions.
But contrary to BMKG's current weekly weather forecast, Erma said the northern winds will remain strong until the end of February. Another factor causing extreme weather is the vortex centered in the south of Sumba-NTT.
"All three bring humidity and concentrate convective clouds still in southern Indonesia, although edging towards the southeastern region," said Erma.
Erma added that the effect of the vortex resulted in increased rainfall in Bali and Nusa Tenggara, as occurred last Monday and Tuesday. At that time, BMKG recorded rainfall in Bali measuring up to 216 mm, classified as extreme rainfall. Heavy rain continued yesterday, Wednesday, February 25, 2026.
Read: BMKG Predicts Heavy Rain in West Java This Week
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