North Korea Watches and Learns as US Attacks Iran

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - North Korea quickly condemned military attacks on Iran, its long-time ally in the Middle East, and analysts suggest that Pyongyang will be looking for military and diplomatic weaknesses and tactical errors from Washington.

One of the most valuable lessons from events since the first US and Israeli missiles were launched into Iran on February 28, is that retaining nuclear weapons is critical to the survival of the regime led by Kim Jong Un.

Pyongyang can use the threat of its nuclear arsenal, combined with advancements in ballistic missile technology, both as leverage in negotiations and to ensure that the US would need to risk nuclear war to topple the regime.

In February, Kim said North Korea's "status as a nuclear-armed country plays an important role in deterring enemies' potential threats and maintaining regional stability," according to a statement carried by the state-run KCNA broadcaster.

Kim added that Pyongyang's nuclear arsenal provided "a guarantee" for the regime's security.

In May 2025, during a missile test, Kim also called for North Korea's systems to be quickly deployable, included with rapid response "trigger" systems.

No more negotiations on North Korean nukes

Andrei Lankov, a professor of history and international relations at Seoul's Kookmin University, said the US-Israeli attack that quickly killed the Islamic Republic's leadership is a lesson for North Korea that nuclear deterrence works.

"The rest of the world can kiss goodbye to any hopes that remained of Pyongyang giving up its nuclear weapons as the North is just not going to take part in any negotiations about anything," Lankov told DW. "The attacks on Iran are the last nail in that particular coffin."

A report published on March 16 by 38 North, a North Korean affairs think tank run by the Washington-based Stimson Center, laid out eight lessons the North Korean leadership will have learned from recent events in the Middle East.

Top of the list was: "nuclear weapons provide real protection."

"It has been widely observed that the Iran case reinforces Kim Jong Un's oft-stated position over the past few years that he will not negotiate away his nuclear arsenal," the report said.

Other key takeaways are the need to increase stocks of missiles and to develop more drones at the same time as being ready to defend key installations from enemy unmanned vehicles.

The think tank added, however, that North Korea was able to develop its nuclear program by dissuading the US in 1994 from attacking its nuclear research facilities through Pyongyang's "ability to inflict massive damage on the nearby city of Seoul with conventional artillery, potentially augmented by an assessed large chemical weapons capability."

The threat of Iranian retaliation in response to attacks on its nuclear program was never as extreme as Pyongyang's threat to South Korea. The North carried out its first nuclear test in 2006.

The close North Korea-Iran relationship

North Korea and Iran have forged close links since the Islamic Republic took power in a 1979 revolution, including in the development of nuclear technology and weapons.

As far back as the 1980s, North Korea was brokering weapons deals with other Communist bloc states and sold its indigenous missile systems to Tehran. The North has also provided military trainers to instruct Iranian forces.

The links were so close that President George W. Bush in 2002 referred to the two countries, along with Iraq, as the "axis of evil" in his State of the Union address. Both Pyongyang and Tehran are still designated as state sponsors of terrorism.

Last week, North Korea condemned the US-Israeli attack on Iran as "destroying the regional peace and security foundations and escalating instability worldwide."

Iran's regime clings to power

As the war continues into its third week, Iran's regime is hanging on to power, despite the demise of key leadership.

The 38 North report said another lesson for the Kim regime is that the leadership needs to be protected and fallback positions need to be ready in the event the ruler is eliminated.

Still, the North will have been heartened at how well Iran has held out against a far superior military force thus far, said Kim Sang-woo, a former politician with the left-leaning South Korean Congress for New Politics and now a member of the board of the Kim Dae-jung Peace Foundation.

"I think Pyongyang is observing how the situation is progressing and they will be quite satisfied with the results so far," he told DW. "Iran has managed to put the US in a difficult position; they thought they would finish the job quickly, as they did in Venezuela, but now they seem to be stuck and are taking pressure domestically and internationally."

"North Korea knows that to give away their nuclear advantage would be foolish, so that is now an impossible dream for us in the South," Kim added.

Read: Is Iran's Regime at a Breaking Point?

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