TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has been monitoring the strengthening of the Australian monsoon over the past few days. This easterly monsoonal wind has been responsible for bringing dry air masses to certain regions of Indonesia, typically marking the dry season.
The BMKG stated in mid-May that the wind had sharply weakened. Its impact resulted in an increase in water vapor in southern Indonesia.
In its latest analysis as of June 1, 2026, the BMKG revealed that the strengthening of the Australian monsoon has led to fewer clouds, particularly in the mornings and afternoons. Consequently, the sun's radiation on the surface has become more optimal.
From May 29 to 31, 2026, maximum air temperatures of 35.0 - 36.4 degrees Celsius were recorded in the North Sumatra, Riau, South Papua, Banten, and Central Sulawesi regions.
Although it has strengthened in recent days, the BMKG stated that the Australian monsoon is still weaker than normal, resulting in continued rainfall in certain areas. This rain mainly occurs in both the western and eastern parts of Indonesia.
The highest rainfall was recorded in Maluku (102.5 mm/day), followed by Central Sulawesi (70.5 mm/day). Jakarta also recorded 70.4 mm/day on the past Saturday, May 30, 2026, which is classified as heavy rain.
In addition to the Australian monsoon being weaker than normal, significant rainfall in these regions is also influenced by atmospheric dynamics supporting increased cloud growth. Spatially, the activities of the Equatorial Rossby Wave and Kelvin Wave are observed to be active in parts of Sumatra, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, North Maluku, Maluku, and Papua.
During the same period, Tropical Cyclone Jangmi indirectly impacted the weather in eastern Indonesia. Jangmi developed from Tropical Cyclone Seed 99W around the North Philippine Sea, north of Papua. This cyclonic system altered the flow of air masses in its vicinity, contributing to the growth of rain clouds in nearby regions.
What about the weather next week?
Based on the latest global climate indicator analysis, BMKG revealed the presence of El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean. This condition typically results in decreased rainfall potential in most parts of Indonesia.
Nevertheless, the BMKG added that regional-scale atmospheric dynamics still have the potential to support the growth of rain clouds in some areas, particularly in the northern and eastern parts of Indonesia.
In the upcoming week, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity is predicted to be in phases 7 (Western Pacific) to 8 (Western Hemisphere and Africa), thus having less influence on Indonesian regions. However, there is still an influence from the Kelvin Wave, which is predicted to be active in the northern part of Sumatra, the southern coast of Java, Bali, West Nusa Tenggara, East Nusa Tenggara, West Kalimantan, the northern to central part of Sulawesi, North Maluku, and Southwest Papua.
Meanwhile, the westward-moving Equatorial Rossby Wave is still predicted to be active and has the potential to support the growth of rain clouds in the northern part of Sumatra, Bali, West Nusa Tenggara, East Nusa Tenggara, and the northern part of Kalimantan.
From June 2 to 4, 2026, the BMKG issued an early warning for the potential of heavy to very heavy rain in West Java. From June 5 to 8, 2026, an early warning for the same rainfall potential was issued for the Papua Mountains region.
Read: Heavy Rain Likely in Parts of West Java for Four Days: BMKG
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