Impact of Iran-Israel War: Rupiah Predicted to Further Weaken

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - President Director of PT Doo Financial Futures, Ariston Tjendra, assessed that the effect of the conflict between Iran and Israel is still a factor in the weakening of the exchange rate or the rupiah exchange rate.

"This morning, we observed that the US Dollar index moved higher compared to yesterday, 98.77 versus 98.20. This is the effect of the Iran - Israel conflict which has not yet ceased, and the US beginning to intervene in helping Israel," he said to ANTARA in Jakarta, Wednesday, June 18, 2025.

On the other hand, the market is also anticipating the results of the Federal Reserve's monetary meeting, which is likely to be more dovish or supporting further easing. This reason is based on the condition that the US economy is under pressure, so market players expect it to be so. "If this happens, the dollar could actually be under pressure," he said.

Considering these factors, the US dollar is potentially not going to move too strong today against the rupiah due to the sentiment of The Fed that could hold the strengthening of the US dollar. "The potential for rupiah weakening toward Rp 16,300, with support at around Rp 16,250," said Aris.

For domestic sentiment, he predicted that the decision on the benchmark interest rate (BI Rate) at the Board of Governors Meeting (RDG) related to the benchmark interest rate (BI-Rate) scheduled for today will remain unchanged. "Especially now that there is a new war, (so the likelihood of an interest rate cut is low)," he said.

The rupiah exchange rate at the opening of trading on Wednesday morning in Jakarta weakened by 13 points or 0.08 percent to Rp 16,303 per US dollar from the previous Rp 16,290 per US dollar.

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