What's at Risk If Iran Blocks the Strait of Hormuz?

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The final decision regarding the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz rests on Iran's National Security Council. The closure of this strategic passage came under consideration after the United States supported Israel by attacking three of Iran's nuclear facilities on Sunday, June 22, 2025.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most strategic and vulnerable regions in the world, so any Iranian blockade will have significant consequences and risks for European countries.

Security expert Claude Moniquet stated that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is one of four potential responses by Iran to the escalating conflict. The former French intelligence official mentioned that such an action would be a "disaster for Europe," considering its extensive economic impact.

To Euronews, here are the potential outcomes if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, according to Claude Moniquet:

1. Threat to Energy Security

Approximately 20 percent of global oil supplies and most of the natural gas are traded through the Strait of Hormuz. European countries rely on importing oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Gulf region, such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, most of which are shipped through this strategic passage.

If Iran closes the passage, world oil prices are expected to surge sharply. Europe could face an energy supply crisis, especially for countries highly dependent on energy sources from the Middle East.

2. Impact on Economic Stability

A sudden rise in oil prices could lead to inflation, increased energy costs, and disrupt economic activities across Europe. Major industries such as manufacturing, transportation, and agriculture are predicted to be most affected. Moreover, Market turmoil caused by energy uncertainty can create tension in European stock markets and cause a domino effect in the financial sector.

3. Potential Security and Military Tension

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz risks triggering military conflict, which could involve the United States, Gulf countries, and the naval forces of the European Union. This tension could escalate into a regional-scale conflict. European countries, especially those with commitments in NATO such as France and the UK, which already have a military presence in the region, are at risk of being involved in the conflict escalation.

4. Disruption to Trade and Logistics

Aside from its strategic role in energy distribution, the Strait of Hormuz is also crucial for global trade. Disruptions to ship traffic in this strait can impede the delivery of raw materials, electronic components, and consumer goods to Europe, thus disrupting industrial supply chains.

On the other hand, surging shipping insurance costs will increase logistics expenses, ultimately impacting price hikes for businesses and consumers in Europe.

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