BMKG: Indonesia Sees Driest July This Year Since 1991

August 4, 2026 | 03:14 pm

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - This year's July has become Indonesia's driest July since 1991, according to the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), based on average nationwide rainfall, driven by the strengthening of the El Nino phenomenon and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).

Speaking at a National Dialogue organized by the Ministry of National Development Planning in Jakarta on Tuesday, August 4, Fachri Radjab, the Acting Deputy for Climatology at BMKG, said that BMKG analysis ranked July 2026 as the driest July since record-keeping began in 1991.

"In June, average rainfall across Indonesia ranked as the eighth lowest since 1991. However, July 2026 turned out to be the driest July on record since 1991," Fachri said.

Why is July the driest month in Indonesia?

This condition is influenced by the "strong" El Nino phenomenon, said Fachri, and the development of a positive IOD in the Indian Ocean; both factors contributed to reduced rainfall in Indonesia.

The current El Nino also has the potential to intensify to a "very strong" category, with a probability of approximately 75 percent between August and October 2026.

Meanwhile, the positive IOD is also expected to intensify, further exacerbating the reduction in rainfall during the dry season.

Fachri noted that BMKG analysis showed almost all of Java, Bali, and Nusa Tenggara experienced low to very low rainfall throughout July 2026.

Similar conditions were observed in southern Sumatra, southern Kalimantan, parts of Sulawesi, Maluku, and Papua—with the exception of Central Papua and Papua Highlands.

Drought is spreading across Indonesia

Additionally, BMKG monitoring signaled that drought is beginning to spread across various regions. As of early August 2026, the weather agency recorded 306 observation points experiencing extreme "days without rain" (HTH)—defined as more than 60 consecutive days without precipitation.

Of these, the longest duration was recorded in Bantul Regency, Special Region of Yogyakarta, which saw 90 consecutive days without rain.

In total, the BMKG recorded 1,657 observation points experiencing "very long" HTH (31–60 consecutive days without rain), while another 322 points experienced "long" HTH (21–30 consecutive days without rain).

But the lack of rainfall is not uniform in Indonesia. According to Fachri, Aceh, North Sumatra, parts of Riau, parts of West Sumatra, and North Kalimantan are still expected to experience moderate to high rainfall this August due to their distinct seasonal patterns.

Read: Drought Hits Areas Around Jakarta as Dry Season Intensifies

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