Rupiah Strengthens as Fiscal Worries Subside

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An officer arranges rupiah and US dollar currency at a money changer in the Tebet area, Jakarta, April 27, 2026. Tempo/Marti Yogi Pardamean

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta The rupiah exchange rate at the close of trading on Wednesday afternoon strengthened by 60 points or 0.33 percent to Rp17,888 per US dollar from Rp17,948 per US dollar previously.

Doo Financial Futures analyst Lukman Leong said the rupiah's strengthening was influenced by easing investor concerns about Indonesia's fiscal condition.

"The rupiah closed significantly higher against the US dollar amid easing investor concerns about Indonesia's fiscal situation after the government reported a state budget (APBN) deficit of 0.76 percent of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) through June and maintained its 2026 APBN deficit projection below the 3 percent of GDP limit," he said on Tuesday, as quoted by ANTARA.

It was recorded that state revenue collected amounted to Rp1,459.4 trillion or 46.3 percent of the 2026 State Budget (APBN) target of Rp3,153.6 trillion. State revenue performance is supported by increased economic activity, tax and customs supervision and governance, and improved services from ministries/agencies (K/L) and public service agencies (BLU).

Tax revenues were recorded at Rp1,187.8 trillion, or 44.1 percent of the Rp2,693.7 trillion target. This includes Rp1,035.7 trillion in tax revenue (43.9 percent of the Rp2,357.7 trillion target), and Rp152 trillion in customs and excise revenue (45.2 percent of the Rp336 trillion target).

Meanwhile, non-tax state revenue (PNBP) was recorded at Rp271 trillion, or 59 percent of the target of IDR 459.2 trillion.

On the other hand, state spending reached Rp1,656 trillion, or 43.1 percent of the target of Rp3,842.7 trillion, representing a 17.8 percent year-on-year growth. The central government has disbursed Rp1,298.6 trillion in spending, which is 41.2 percent of the Rp3,149.7 trillion target.

For the ministries and institutions (K/L), spending was recorded at Rp658.9 trillion, which is 43.6 percent of the Rp1,510.5 trillion target. For non-K/L spending, the realization was Rp639.7 trillion, which is 39 percent of the Rp1,639.2 trillion target. Meanwhile, Rp357.4 trillion was distributed to regions, which is 51.6 percent of the Rp693 trillion target.

With this performance, the state budget experienced a deficit of Rp196.5 trillion, or 0.76 percent of GDP, while the primary balance recorded a surplus of Rp85.1 trillion.

"In recent months, a lot of foreign funds have left due to concerns that the deficit could exceed 3 percent, with some even estimating it at 4 percent," said Lukman.

Another sentiment stems from the anticipation of a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate increase at the Bank Indonesia (BI) Board of Governors Meeting (RDG) on Wednesday (22/7).

For the record, the 50 basis point increase in the BI Rate in May 2026 was the first adjustment since the benchmark interest rate reached 4.75 percent in September 2025. However, the rupiah continued to weaken, reaching Rp18,000 per US dollar in early June.

At the BI Weekly Board of Governors Meeting (RDG) on June 9, 2026, BI again raised the BI Rate by 25 basis points. Since that decision, the rupiah has gradually returned below Rp 18,000 per US dollar.

At the monthly RDG on June 18, 2026, BI also continued tightening monetary policy by raising the BI Rate by 25 bps to 5.75 percent. BI is scheduled to hold another monthly RDG on July 21-22, 2026.

The Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (JISDOR) of Bank Indonesia also strengthened today, rising from Rp17,976 to Rp17,909 per US dollar.

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