Trump's Approval Rating Hits Second-Term Low Ahead of US Midterms

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta – United States (US) President Donald Trump's approval ratings have fallen to their lowest levels of his second term, according to multiple recent surveys, raising fresh concerns for Republicans just three months before the 2026 midterm elections.

Although Trump will not be on the ballot in November, the elections are widely expected to serve as a referendum on his presidency, with Republican candidates seeking to defend his record while Democrats campaign against his policies.

Recent polling shows the president struggling nationally and in many of the battleground states that helped return him to the White House in 2024. As reported by U.S. News, Trump's nationwide approval rating stands at 36 percent, while 59 percent of Americans disapprove of his job performance. Several other major polls, including those conducted by AP-NORC, Pew Research Center, and the American Research Group, also show majority disapproval of his presidency.

The state-level picture is equally challenging. Trump's net approval rating—calculated by subtracting disapproval from approval—has turned negative across every major swing state, including Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, and Ohio.

Florida has recorded one of the sharpest declines, shifting from a positive net approval rating of nine points when Trump began his second term to minus 21. Ohio fell from plus eight to minus 13, while Nevada dropped from neutral to minus 21.

Political analysts say such declines could complicate Republican efforts to retain congressional control.

"Being underwater by double digits in major battlegrounds means GOP incumbents can't count on Trump to lift them across the finish line," Brett Loyd, co-founder of the Independent Center, told U.S. News.

Public dissatisfaction appears closely tied to several of Trump's major policy decisions. A recent Civiqs survey found that most respondents opposed U.S. military involvement in Iran, while majorities also disapproved of the administration's renewed military strikes, new tariffs, and the Republican-backed spending package known as the "big, beautiful bill."

Other polls point to similar concerns. A Quinnipiac University survey found that 60 percent of voters opposed military action against Iran, while CNN/SSRS reported that three-quarters of Americans believe the conflict has not been worth its cost.

According to The Economist's approval tracker based on weekly YouGov polling, Trump's net approval rating has now fallen to minus 25, the lowest recorded during his current presidency. About 35 percent of Americans approve of his performance, while 60 percent disapprove.

The publication noted that the administration's decision to resume military strikes on Iran in mid-July likely accelerated the decline in public support. Polling also showed that six in ten Americans believe Washington is spending too much money on the conflict, even as Trump continues to warn Tehran of heavier military action if negotiations collapse.

Economic concerns have also intensified. Trump's approval rating for handling inflation and consumer prices has dropped to minus 43, the weakest of his second term. Fuel prices have climbed sharply since tensions with Iran escalated, with the average price of gasoline rising from below US$3 per gallon before the conflict to US$4.48.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has promised that "help is on the way," but persistent inflation and uncertainty over U.S. foreign policy have continued to weigh on public confidence.

The Economist's state-by-state projections also show that while Trump maintains strong support among Republican voters, dissatisfaction has spread even across states that backed him in the 2024 presidential election.

Support remains strongest among white male voters, while younger Americans, ethnic minorities, and college graduates are among the groups most likely to disapprove. Older voters, traditionally a reliable Republican constituency, have also shown weaker enthusiasm than in previous election cycles.

The surveys suggest that Americans remain primarily concerned about inflation and the cost of living, while Republican voters continue to prioritize immigration, taxes, and government spending. Democratic voters, meanwhile, rank healthcare and climate change among their top concerns.

Despite the polling setbacks, Trump has publicly dismissed the findings. In a June 24 post on his Truth Social platform, he insisted that his popularity remained strong.

"My real poll numbers are the highest they have ever been. THANK YOU!!!" Trump wrote.

Whether his loyal political base will be enough to protect Republican candidates in competitive congressional races remains one of the key questions heading into the November midterm elections.

Read: Trump Warns Iran of 'Decapitation' Unless Nuclear Deal Is Reached

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