UN Lowers 2026 Int'l Tourism Growth Outlook over War, High Prices

September 18, 2026 | 05:55 pm

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - On Thursday, September 17, UN Tourism lowered its projection for global international tourist arrival growth for 2026 to between 1 percent and 2 percent, from the initial projection of 3-4 percent in January. 

The decline was influenced by the conflict in the Middle East and rising travel costs that dampened growth momentum, according to Xinhua, as cited by Antara.

The Middle East region saw a 22 percent decline in international tourist arrivals due to conflicts directly impacting the region, according to the latest edition of the World Tourist Barometer report.

The report shows that international tourist arrivals rose by only 0.4 percent year-on-year (yoy) in the first half of 2026. Around 690 million tourists traveled internationally during that period, or about 3 million more than in the same period last year.

International tourist arrivals were up by 2 percent in the first quarter of 2026, but fell by 1 percent in the next quarter. In June alone, arrivals dropped by 3 percent yoy.

Meanwhile, arrival growths were detected in Africa, which saw 4 percent increase in the first six months of this year, followed by Europe at 3 percent, and the Americas at 2 percent. Tourist visits to the Asia and Pacific region rose 1 percent, but remained 11 percent below 2019 levels.

"The latest data shows the sector is facing real pressure and is struggling to find a way out," UN Tourism Secretary-General Shaikha Al Nuwais said. "The situation in the Middle East has impacted destinations far beyond the region itself and is a stark reminder that, in our interconnected world, resilience needs to be built everywhere, not just when crises strike."

According to the UN official, tourism had indeed continued to grow, but that growth was "fragile."

UN Tourism said the revised outlook would depend on the duration of the Middle East conflict and its impact on oil prices and overall inflation.

High prices and uncertainty are expected to keep travelers focused on value for money, with many likely to choose destinations closer to home or shift to domestic travel, according to the report.

Read: Indonesia Optimistic Tourism Growth Will Continue Despite Volcanic Eruptions

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